All Climate Events

Tuesday, March 2, 2021. 1:00 PM. Webinar: Assessing Future Changes in Fire Risk in the Northeastern United States using the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). Daniel Miller, US Department of Agriculture. Sponsored by US Fish and Wildlife Service's National Conservation Training Center. Register here.

One poorly understood consequence of climate change is its effects on extreme events such as wildfires. Robust associations between wildfire frequency and climatic variability have been shown to exist, indicating that future climate change may continue to have a significant effect on wildfire activity. The Northeastern United States (NEUS) has experienced severe, catastrophic historic wildfire outbreaks, such as the Miramichi Fire of 1825 and the Maine fires of 1947. However, little is known about how the direct effects of climate change (temperature & precipitation) will impact fire risk in the NEUS under future climate scenarios. Presentation Objectives:

1. Present a regional assessment of climatological fire risk using a multi-model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI)
2. Demonstrate the accuracy of climate models in reconstructing modeled KBDI compared to observational KBDI from regional meteorological stations
3. Highlight regional and sub-regional changes in future fire risk and the causes of said changes.