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Tuesday, September 21, 2021. 2:00 PM. Webinar: Seasonality of interbasin SST contributions to Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Robert West, NOAA. Sponsored by NOAA. Register here.

Abstract: The relative difference in sea surface temperatures (SST) between the tropical Atlantic main development region (MDR, 10N-20N, 60W-20W) and the tropical Pacific influences Atlantic tropical cyclone activity through atmospheric teleconnections. However, the seasonality of the Pacific and Atlantic SST contributions to Atlantic hurricane activity is unclear. This analysis finds that MDR and El Nio"Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Nio 3 (5N-5S, 150W-90W) SSTs have similar late-season impact on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, but MDR SSTs dominate the early-season. This reflects the reduced variance of Nio 3 SSTs consistent with observations and driven by ENSO phase locking to the seasonal cycle. Increased predictability of hurricane activity in the late-season is linked to greater variability of late-season equatorial Pacific SSTs and reflected in hindcasts of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). Insights into teleconnections that influence Atlantic hurricane activity, along with the limitations of early-season NMME predictability, are important for improving operational seasonal outlooks.

Bio(s): Robert West is a Northern Gulf Institute (NGI) Postdoctoral Associate at Mississippi State University and located in the Physical Oceanography Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML).